Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/21/2012 -- The Greece Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail and industrial segments alongside the construction sector in the context of the country's continuing economic struggles.
With a focus on the principal cities of Athens, Piraeus and Thessaloniki, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the government led austerity on a long-stagnant market. Key complimentary industry areas are also examined including the construction industry and business environment, key in analysing investor sentiment.
While the Greek government has overcome a number of obstacles, thus far averting a potentially disastrous and disorderly default, mounting economic and political instability continues to thwart any positives emerging from the country. Over the longer term, in addition to the impact of further austerity, Greece could also have little influence inside the EU and will remain a de facto economic protectorate for years to come.
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While we expect the pace of contraction to ease in 2012, we stress that a return to sustainable growth is predicated not just on successful economic reforms but also on targeting policies at future growth industries and restoring confidence. The short-term outlook for the real estate sector is not likely to restore investor confidence any time soon: the pipeline is glacial, demand-destruction is endemic and oversupply is rife. The risks for the real estate sector as a whole are therefore firmly weighted to the downside, with a slight silver lining coming in the form of high-end space, particularly in the retail and office segments.
- Greece still faces years of punishing austerity which we still believe will not succeed in restoring debt sustainability unless there is a shift towards growth-orientated policies.
- The general election held on May 6 has resulted in an extremely polarised parliament, reflecting an increasingly divided and discontented electorate.
- Assuming that Greece continues down the path of further austerity we forecast the economy to contract by 4.5% in 2012 and 1.2% in 2013 (2013 growth has been revised down from a positive 1.3% forecast).
- Greece's construction industry is expected to remain in recession for the sixth consecutive year in 2012, and we do not expect a recovery until 2015.
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