New Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 04/30/2013 -- The Hungarian new vehicle sales market saw good growth over 2012, according to figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) in January 2013. There was a 17.6% increase in the number of passenger cars sold, to reach 53,059 units; however, commercial vehicle sales dropped back by 5%, to 15,109. This made for a total of 68,168 new vehicles sold in Hungary over 2012, representing an increase of 11.7% on 2011's performance. However, new car sales remain a long way from the peak of nearly 175,000 reached in 2008, with BMI not forecasting any return to these levels of annual sales at any point over our forecast period to 2017.
Moreover, the outlook for the current year appears much less encouraging, with BMI's Country Risk team now forecasting a recession in Hungary during 2013. This is primarily due to concerns surrounding the country's political direction, as well as disappointing Q312 data. BMI has revised downward its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts for Hungary, to -0.4% and 2.0%, from 1.2% and 2.3% respectively.
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Worryingly for the autos industry, the domestic slowdown is being driven by a sharp decline in household consumption, which fell by 3.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during Q312. Inflation is also a concern, with unemployment also still high. The unemployment rate has remained above 10.0% since August 2009, and in combination with a sustained decline in household loan growth - which fell by 17.0% during the first 11 months of 2012 - these factors are likely to weigh heavily on the spending patterns of consumers going into 2013 as they struggle to obtain financing or retain their jobs.
Consequently, there may be downside risks to BMI's current forecast of a 4.4% expansion in Hungarian new vehicle sales over 2013.
With regards to production, BMI is forecasting a 2.7% increase in Hungarian auto production in 2013, with a more substantial increase (of 6.2%) in 2014. This is based on an increase in demand from key export markets.
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