Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/18/2013 -- The Indonesia Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, bolstered by rising demand for regional travel from China in particular, but cautions that the threat of renewed terrorist activity aimed at foreign tourists and a possible resurgence in the number of cases of bird flu in the archipelago (with nine reported cases over 2012 year-to-date) remain key risks to BMI's future forecasts on this key economic sector.

We also analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Indonesian market.

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Tourist arrivals to Indonesia over January-September 2012 increased by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 5,895,288 people, according to information from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. This leaves the country well on course to meet BMI's full-year target of 7.91mn tourist arrivals. This is lower than the target of 8mn set for the full year by the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. Ngurah Rai Airport in Bali remains the most popular arrival airport for foreign tourists, with 2.14mn travellers having passed through the airport over 9M12, up by 3.45% y-o-y. Soekarno-Hatta Airport in Jakarta remained in second place, on 1.5mn passengers, up by 5.8% y-o-y.

Beyond 2012, our forecast is for tourist arrivals to increase by an average annual rate of 4.2% per annum over the next five years, leading to a total of over 9.72mn tourist arrivals by end-2017. If the global economy picks up momentum going into 2013, then there will be clear upside risks to our forecasts.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

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