Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Japan Real Estate Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2013 -- The Japan Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country in the context of reconstruction efforts post-Tohoku coming to fruition at a more moderated rate than previously anticipated.
With a focus on the principal cities of Tokyo, Osaka and Yokohama, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the completion of new supply on a market which was surprisingly resilient in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in 2011. Our most recent round of in-country interviews (conducted in July 2012) showed that rents continue to struggle with stability across all sub-sectors.
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- The Cabinet office of Japan revised down its estimate of growth in Q212 to an annualised rate of 0.45% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our expectations for the Japanese economy to cool as volatility in the external environment has an adverse impact on domestic economic activity levels. The September Tankan survey and other economic indicators suggest that businesses are likely to see conditions deteriorate, which bodes poorly for private investment growth. We believe that growth is likely to slow further in 2013, to come in at a subdued 1.2%, and highlight the growing risks of recession.
- Even with the election of new party chiefs in both the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), we believe that the political impasse will remain, as the opposition parties continue to push Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to call for an early dissolution of the House of Representatives. Our core view is for the LDP to win the largest number of the seats in the lower house, but fail to secure a majority and thus need to seek more partners to form a ruling coalition. As such, we expect the current policy gridlock to remain, which could present downside risks to our forecast.
- We believe that Japanese real GDP will decline to 1.2% in 2013, from 1.5% in 2012, as the country struggles to find sources of growth as it faces weakening demand both at home and abroad. Moreover, we expect the political impasse to impair the government's ability to stimulate the economy and expect the public sector to shrink its contribution to growth as the current rate of debt growth is unlikely to be sustained. In addition, we see growing downside risks to our downbeat growth forecasts as the deterioration in economic data from Japan's trading partners suggests that another global recession could be at hand.
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