Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- BMI's Japan Tourism report looks at the long-term potential of the tourist industry, which is showing strong recovery following the March 2011 earthquake and a period of depressed domestic economic growth. The burgeoning markets within the wider Asia Pacific region will further boost inbound travel throughout the forecast period.

The Great East Japan earthquake, resulting tsunami and ensuing nuclear crisis of March 2011 had a sharp impact on the Japanese tourism industry, immediately decreasing inbound and domestic tourist activity, with inbound travel falling by 27.78% to 6.2mn in 2011. Figures were recovering in 2012, when inbound travel reaching approximately 7.14mn. However we do not expect inbound travel to fully recover, ie, regain the 2010 arrivals figure of 8.61mn, until 2014.

As well as causing a decline in inbound and outbound travel, the earthquake and tsunami also resulted in widespread damage to the country's infrastructure. By the end of 2012 some progress had been made on rebuilding efforts; however, much more significant progress is needed throughout the project pipeline. Despite the restrictions on investment in place due to the limited domestic economy and the non-travel infrastructure related rebuilding necessitated by the earthquake, the government continues to invest in largescale expansion and improvement projects that will provide a boost to the tourism market.

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As tourists regain trust in travel to Japan, and infrastructure improvements facilitate travel, we expect arrivals to continue to grow and reach 11.87mn by 2017. This is a slight decline on the previously estimated arrivals figures of 11.95mn forecast for 2017, taking into account revised global economic estimates. The global credit crunch will continue to have an impact on long distance travel from the major markets in Europe and the United States, as well as depressing domestic travel in 2013 and 2014. BMI does however expect to see an increase in tourism from the Asia Pacific region, where many countries are experiencing strong economic growth. Access to this market could however be affected by continuing tensions with China concerning the territorial claims on the Sekaku, despite Japan recently easing visa regulations to facilitate travel to and from China. Similarly, diplomatic tensions with South Korea may also affect travel between the two countries. The Liberal Democrat Party elected into power in December 2012 is expected to take a more hard-line foreign policy stance and any escalation in diplomatic tensions could be a long term problem as South Korea and China are two major markets within the Asia Pacific region.

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