Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/13/2012 -- BMI remains cautiously optimistic on the Mexican freight transport sector. While we expect slowing external demand to begin to temper economic growth in Mexico toward the latter half of the year, the country's economic expansion will remain well anchored by fairly solid private consumption and rapid investment growth in the wake of the recent presidential election. This should help support freight transport volume growth. We project growth in all the freight modes we cover in 2012, with road freight the outperformer. This is predicated on consistently strong NAFTA volume growth through the first half of the year. For shipping, the increased involvement of international terminals operators such as APM Terminals underlines the potential of the sector in the years to come.

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Headline Industry Data

- Rail freight tonnes forecast to grow 4.7% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.8% during our forecast period.
- Road freight tonnes forecast to grow 7.8% in 2012, with average annual growth of 3.4% during our forecast period.
- Air freight tonnes forecast to grow 10.8% in 2012, with average annual growth of 8.5% during our forecast period.
- Port of Veracruz total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 7.9%, to reach 22.75mn tonnes.
- Port of Manzanillo total tonnage growth in 2012 is estimated to hit 3.7% to reach 26.91mn tonnes.

Key Trends And Developments

APMT Signs On Lazaro Cardenas: BMI believes that the new container terminal to be opened at the Mexican port of Lazaro Cardenas will bring competition to the US West Coast ports of LA and Long Beach, which are both already concerned over potential loss of traffic once the Panama Canal expansion is completed. We also believe that the new facility will see the proportion of containerised tonnage at the port increase further.

Hermes Aviation Awarded Virgin Atlantic Contract: US cargo sales agent Hermes Aviation announced in July that it had been awarded a contract by Virgin Atlantic Cargo to sell freight capacity on its services between Mexico and the UK. Hermes Aviation will be responsible for securing clients transporting cargo on the twice-weekly service between Cancun in Mexico and London Gatwick Airport. Cancun is an exporter of perishable goods, including berries, ferns, fish, lemons and mangoes.

Surface Transportation Trade Rises By 6.6%: The US and its North American Free Trade Agreement partners, Canada and Mexico, posted a 6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in surface transportation trade to US$82.6bn in June, according to the US Department of Transportation. However, the value of US surface transportation trade with Canada and Mexico fell by 1.4% month-on-month in June, owing to seasonal variations and other factors. Surface trade between the US and Mexico jumped by 8.8% y-o-y to US$34.2bn in the reported month, while surface trade between the US and Canada rose by 5% y-o-y to US$48.4bn.

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