Fast Market Research

Market Report, "Mexico Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013", Published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Mexico Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013"

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/02/2013 -- Never before has Mexican energy sector reform been both more critical and more attainable. Indeed, without reform and a resulting uptick in foreign investment, the country is set to switch from being one of the largest oil exporters in the world to a net importer by the latter part of our 10-year forecast period. However, while Mexico's ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional has recently introduced a proposal to remove long-standing limits on private sector involvement in upstream activity - a key first step - we believe that whether there is substantial interest from the major international oil companies will be largely determined by the wording of secondary legislation and specific contractual details. As such, although we highlight substantial upside risks, for now we retain our relatively pessimistic forecasts for the sector.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

- We are forecasting a steady decline in both Mexican proven oil reserves and production over the next decade, with the country likely to become a net importer rather than one of the world's largest net exporters - as is the case at the moment - by the end of our forecast period. This is on the back of several years of declining production, combined with the recognition that it will take a significant amount of time for any new production to come online. Furthermore, the country's most productive fields, especially Cantarell, are maturing at a rapid rate, resulting in a steady trend of reserve depletion. We forecast 2013 oil production of 2.94mn barrels per day (b/d), falling to 2.82mn b/d in 2017. Production will end our forecast period in 2022 at 2.59mn b/d.
- Our bearish view of Mexican oil production is reinforced by several interconnected fundamentals, including Pemex's relative inexperience in deepwater drilling as well as high tax and debt burdens. Moreover, the current inability for the company to work with foreign partners also prevents it from spreading capital risk, while also not being able to capitalize on foreign expertise and technology.
- Mexican pipeline imports of natural gas have grown almost in parallel with the US natural gas production boom over the last few years. Importantly, because the imported gas is priced at the US Henry Hub benchmark, imports remain cheap despite surging demand growth. These price dynamics have a reinforcing effect, and therefore will support future demand growth. As such, we expect this trend to remain in place for the foreseeable future - with its associated negative implications for Mexican domestic natural gas production, underpinning our forecast for Mexican gas production to grow at a modest 1% per annum for the foreseeable future.

About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

Browse all Energy research reports at Fast Market Research

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Antrim Energy Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q1, 2013
- OAO Novatek Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Twin Butte Energy Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- InterOil Exploration & Production ASA Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Pengrowth Energy Corporation Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Bankers Petroleum Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- EQT Corporation Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Nexen Inc. Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012
- Halcon Resources Corporation Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Operations and Cost Analysis - Q4, 2012