Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/05/2013 -- We continue to expect yet another year of pharmaceutical market value contraction in the Netherlands. Having been valued at EUR6.56bn (US$8.33bn) at consumer prices in 2012, or US$498 per capita, we expect negative pressures on volume consumption of medicines as well as on their prices to remain in play, especially as the government foots over 80% of the total healthcare bill. In combination with patent expirations, we expect such pressures to prevent the market's value growth from returning to the positive territory until 2017 at the earliest. Although the Netherlands will continue to be supplied by research-based pharmaceutical manufacturers, we expect the import mix to increasingly feature generic drugs sourced in emerging markets.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.56bn (US$8.33bn) in 2012 to EUR6.36bn (US$8.52bn) in 2013; -3.0% in local currency terms and +2.4% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly in line with the previous quarter's projections.
- Healthcare: EUR73.08bn (US$92.81bn) in 2012 to EUR73.60bn (US$98.63bn) in 2013; +0.7% in local currency terms and +6.3% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly in line with the previous quarter's projections, despite slight upward revision of historical data.

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Risk/Reward Ratings: Following a minor re-weighting of one of the assessment criteria in order to make the comparison more transparent, in BMI's Q313 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRRs) for the 10 key Western European markets, the Netherlands ranks again seventh, although its overall RRR score is slightly below the regional average. While it offers drugmakers a relatively low-risk operating environment, poor market prospects - due to pressures on pricing and reimbursement and the market's maturity - will continue to weigh down the country's overall standing.

Key Trends And Developments

- In March 2013, during a post-closing acceptance period related to Dr Reddy's Laboratories' October 2012 public offer to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Dutch pharmaceutical company OctoPlus, 5.2% of shares were tendered for around US$1.4mn. These newly-tendered shares join those acquired by Dr Reddy's during the period, making Dr Reddy's the holder of 98.6% of OctoPlus' shares. As a result, Dr Reddy's and OctoPlus - which is focused on the development and manufacture of improved injectable pharmaceuticals based on its drug-delivery technologies - will jointly request NYSE Euronext Amsterdam to terminate the listing and trading of the shares on the market as soon as possible. Dr Reddy's will now initiate squeeze-out proceedings in order to acquire the remaining shares not tendered and not held by Dr Reddy's or OctoPlus. The acquisition of OctoPlus will help expand the expertise and scientific capabilities of Dr Reddy's, and also its presence in Europe.

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