New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Peru Freight Transport Report Q4 2012"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/02/2013 -- BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. We believe Peru's strong domestic demand story will continue in 2012, although an anticipated drag from net exports means we stick to our below consensus 4.8% real GDP growth forecast. We caution however, that significant external risks to the economy means we cannot rule out a more pronounced slowdown in growth on the back of weaker global demand for the country's minerals and moderating global commodity prices. The expected slowdown in the Chinese economy will drag on the country's exports, putting some downside pressure on volumes, particularly for ports and railways that handle dry bulk.
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Headline Industry Data
- We expect growth of 4.3% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 19.3mn
- We predict air freight volume to increase 7.2%, to 263,000 tonnes in 2012.
- We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 5.0%, to 1.3bn tonnes-km in 2012.
Key Industry Trends
Lan-Tam Merger Could See Bright Future Ahead
After nearly two years of clearing regulatory hurdles, LAN and TAM merged to form Latam Airlines on June 22. The new airline is the biggest carrier in Latin America and the largest in the world in terms of market capitalisation. BMI believes the airline will be well placed to take advantage of growing volumes in the region.
Criticism Of Muelle Norte, Paita Port Concessions
The vice president of Peru's congress, Manuel Merino, has called for the cancellation of the concession contracts for Callao port's Muelle Norte terminal and Paita port following claims of alleged flaws in the tender processes. The country's private investment promotion agency, ProInversion, awarded the concession for Callao's Muelle Norte terminal to Dutch-based port operator APM Terminals in April 2011, while local concessionaire Terminales Portuarios Euroandinos (TPE) has operated Paita port since September 2009.
US$150mn Investment In Mineral Conveyor In Puerto Callao
The construction of a US$150mn conveyor belt to transport iron ore from mining areas to the port of Callao will be completed in September 2013. The project being carried out by Callao Transportadora Consortium (CTC) formed by the companies Impala, Perubar, Chinalco, El Brocal and Santa Sofia Ports.
Key Risks To Outlook
Upside risks come from the fact that increased private consumption could possibly lead to greater demand for imports. We expect consumption to benefit from President Ollanta Humala's economic policies. Humala's new economic plan does not include increasing taxes on consumers. In fact, Humala will seek to reduce VAT in the coming years, supporting consumer demand.
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