Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/08/2013 -- BMI View: We continue to view Peru as a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market, on account of elevated risks posed by regulatory and intellectual property (IP) shortcomings and the still-developing healthcare infrastructure. Nevertheless, economic progress and the government-led investment in healthcare facilities and public health programmes pose upside risks to our current forecasts. We also expect Peru's pharmaceutical market to post a local currency compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% in the 2011-2016 period, which is only slightly below that forecast for the country's healthcare spending and also in line with Peru's GDP development.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: PEN3.90bn (US$1.42bn) in 2011 to PEN4.32bn (US$1.62bn) in 2012; +10.7% in local currency terms and +14.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q312.
- Healthcare: PEN19.52bn (US$7.09bn) in 2011 to PEN21.05bn (US$7.90bn) in 2012; +7.8% in local currency terms and +11.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q312.
- Medical devices: PEN897mn (US$326mn) in 2011 to PEN960mn (US$360mn) in 2012; +7.0% in local currency terms and +10.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q312.

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Risk/Reward Rating: Peru's composite score for Q412 stands at an unchanged 47.7 out of the maximum 100, and which again places the country ninth out of the 17 countries surveyed in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix for the Americas. Peru will continue to be viewed as a moderately promising longer-term pharmaceutical market for multinationals, on account of the below-average industry rewards and risks, although we expect continued improvements in the country's operating climate. Globally, Peru is ranked 54th (up from 55th in the previous quarter) out of the 95 markets surveyed in our pharmaceuticals universe, above Kazakhstan and below Ukraine.

Key Trends And Developments

- In July 2012, Peru's Association of National Pharmaceutical Industries (ADIFAN) called for mandatory quality checks on imported drugs in Peru, saying it is an issue of reciprocity as well as quality. Experts have said quality control will make Peruvians more confident when purchasing such medications. Congress has tabled a bill aiming to improve the quality control measures in the country, according to Jose Enrique Silva, the president of ADIFAN.
- As part of the authorities' aim to tackle the rising cancer burden, the National Institute of Neoplastic Diseases of Peru (INEN) in July 2012 announced plans to invest PEN500mn (US$190.8mn) for cancer prevention and treatment between 2012 and 2016. The spending will be distributed across 25 regions and PEN140mn (US$53.4mn) will be specifically used for cancer treatment. The rest will be allocated to specialist training and infrastructure expansion in hospitals for cancer detection or treatment.

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