New Retailing research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/24/2013 -- The Philippines Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on the Philippines' economic outlook of ongoing external weaknesses.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Philippine retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of an increasingly hostile external demand environment on the Philippine consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Philippine retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Philippines per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 33% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 46%. The Philippines comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms slightly for rewards. Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 32.2% between 2013 and 2017, from US$14.96bn to US$19.78bn as domestic operators start modernising their outlets and increase the variety of products on offer. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in market liberalisation, which may encourage global multinationals to enter the country.
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Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Following a stronger-than-expected expansion in H112, BMI expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.0% in 2012. However, with pervasive external weaknesses set to undermine the country's previously robust trade outlook, we continue to expect headline growth to retreat over the course of H212, and see GDP growth cooling to 4.4% (up from our previous forecast of 4.0%) in 2013. At the same time, we envisage a strong comeback in fixed capital growth in 2013, and believe that this will mark the beginning of a longer-term resurgence in investment.
- BMI forecasts that private consumption will grow by 6.0% in 2012 before cooling to 4.8% in 2013. Private consumption continues to make up by far the largest share of the economy, comprising 73.4% in nominal terms.
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