New Consumer Goods research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/29/2013 -- We expect Poland's consumer electronics market will grow by around 4% in 2013, with risks to the downside following a sharp dip in household consumption in H113. Vendors will hope that faster growth is likely as the eurozone economy picks up in H213. Poland's retail sales growth dropped from an average of 6.4% y-o-y in 2012 to just 0.8% y-o-y in Q113.Household income growth is likely to remain subdued into mid-2013.
The effects of strong credit growth in 2006-8 are still being felt on households, and spending on digital lifestyle items will remain under pressure in 2013 from low real wages growth and sticky unemployment.
Fortunately, consumer electronics spending should outperform the total retail sector over our five-year forecast period to 2017. BMI forecasts a steady increase in spending on consumer electronics products such as smartphones and flat-panel TV sets, driven by new technologies, consumers seeking choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains.
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Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer hardware sales: US$3.5bn in 2012 to US$3.7bn in 2013, +4% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, but Poland remains on course to close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe.
- Handset sales: US$2.0bn in 2012 to US$2.1bn in 2013, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with strong growth expected in smartphone sales.
- AV sales: US$2.4bn in 2012 to US$2.6bn in 2013, +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with growth areas including HD TV, 3D and smart TV.
Poland's score was 54.2 out of 100.0 with a high Market Risk and Country Risk scores of 70 and 74.6 respectively. Poland took first place in our latest Emerging Europe CE RRR table and looks set to be one of the best regional CE market prospects over our five-year forecast period to 2017.
Key Trends & Developments
By 2017, BMI forecasts that non-flat-panel models will comprise only about 10% of TV sales, although there currently remains demand for larger analogue models. TV revenue accounts for more than 50% of total AV demand, although lower average prices of flat screen TV sets will restrain revenue growth. Expanding availability of digital and HD TV broadcasting will drive demand for a higher quality viewing experience as consumers upgrade their sets to digital.
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