Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/28/2013 -- Over the first 10 months of 2012, passenger car sales in Romania declined 12.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 55,910 units. BMI forecasts sales in this segment to decline 14% in the full-year. BMI maintains a particularly bearish outlook for GDP growth in Romania, in particular private consumption. Unemployment increased in 2012, and access to consumer credit remains weak. We expect these trends to continue into 2013. This outlook has informed our passenger car sales forecasts for 2012 and 2013. Over the remainder of 2017 forecast period, we expect to see a steady increase in sales volumes, but believe the market will remain considerably below its 2007-peak within this time frame.

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In Romania, the used car segment is far more substantial than the new car market. In the first 10 months of 2012, sales in the used car segment increased 82.1% y-o-y, to 137,841 units. As private consumption puts downward pressure on sales in the new car segment, we believe that Romanians are increasingly turning to the used car market as a more affordable alternative. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that the average age of the cars on the road is increasing, as drivers look to keep their cars longer before replacing them. In the first seven months of 2012 (that latest data available), vehicle production in Romania decreased 4.3% y-o-y, to 192,658 units. Passenger car production declined 2.2% y-o-y in this period, while commercial vehicle (CV) production declined 28.5% y-o-y. BMI believes that passenger car production will resurge later in the year on the back of strong export growth, and forecast 2% growth. In the CV segment, we forecast a decline of 20%, due predominantly to Ford Motor shifting production.

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