Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/06/2013 -- With a focus on the principal cities of Bucharest, Brasov and Cluj-Napoca, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 24 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of the eurozone crisis on a market already characterised by austerity. In line with such an outlook, we see similarly stable, though unexciting, growth in rental rates in 2013, with supply and demand largely in balance. The retail sector can be considered an outperformer, with internationals constantly entering the market and many looking to expand their businesses out of the major cities.

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Key Points

- The residential and non-residential building sectors saw a slight return to growth in 2012, although activity in the sectors will remain extremely depressed going forward. Year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 6.1% is estimated for the year, increasing to 6.4% in 2013.
- Romania's economy as a whole is estimated to have grown by 1% in real terms during 2012. However, it is thought that the construction sector outstripped the economic growth rate. Underpinning our continued optimism for the sector, activity in the local construction market expanded by 5.1% year-on-year in August 2012 (and 2.8% month-on-month). As such, we estimate that Romania's construction market expanded by 5.7% in real terms over 2012, marking an improvement on the 3.1% growth recorded in 2011 and the 12.1% real contraction experienced in 2010.
- Over the period 2013 to 2016, we expect that Romania's construction market will expand at annual rate ranged between 5.1% and 6.1%, while the period 2017-2021 will see continued annual growth of around 5% in real terms, making for a reasonably auspicious long-term outlook.
- Risks to our construction sector forecasts are to the downside, in view of slightly weaker-than-expected economic growth and a renewed uptick in inflation, which reached an annual 3.9% in August 2012.
- We remain bearish on the European building materials market as conditions for firms continue to deteriorate in light of ongoing eurozone austerity. The sovereign debt crisis, lower domestic demand from peripheral countries and tighter financing conditions are constraining our construction outlook for the region and will continue to limit growth for the foreseeable future. Overcapacity, increasing production costs and falling sales volumes have hit the bottom lines of producers since 2009, and we see no immediate end to these phenomena. Notable exceptions to this trend are Russia and, to a lesser extent, Turkey. We expect these outperforming markets to sustain high levels of demand over the medium term.

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