Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/10/2014 -- Most food & drink companies will suffer from an uncertain political and economic environment in the coming months in Russia . We are quite cautious about the outlook for private consumption in the country on the back of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the former Soviet power's influence on its neighbour. The recent sanctions adopted by the US and EU will only exaggerate already harsh credit conditions, potentially further limiting consumer purchasing power. As a result, we have lowered our growth forecast for household consumption to 3.2% in 2014 from 4.0% previously, and to 3.3% in 2015 from 3.5% previously.

Headline Industry Data:

- 2014 per capita food consumption (local currency) = +9.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 2013 to 2018 = +8.6%.

- 2014 beer volume sales = 2%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = 2%.

- 2014 fruit juice volume sales = +4.6%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +5.0%.

- 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) = +28.3%; forecast CAGR to 2018 = +30.3%.

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Key Company Trends:

X5 Making Turnaround Progress : X5, Russia's second biggest food retailer by store count and sales, has performed poorly since 2011. It has largely struggled to manage the transition from an acquisition to an organic-led growth strategy. By comparison, X5's main competitor Magnit has rarely pursued deal-led growth, instead preferring to grow organically, focusing almost entirely on discount stores (X5 operates across a number of formats) with great success. X5 is finally finding its feet again after a couple of promising quarters.

As the Russia/Ukraine crisis came to a head in March 2014, we made the point that the main downside risk to the Russian retail sector came from the effect the weakening rouble was likely to have on the purchasing power of consumers as the shopping basket became more expensive. Over the past month or so the rouble has strengthened, primarily on the back of reconciliatory rhetoric coming out...

The Russia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Russia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Russia.

Key Benefits:

- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian food and drink market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage:

BMI Industry View:

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings:

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis:

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts:

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

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