Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2012 -- The Russia petrochemicals report examines the enormous long-term potential of the country's domestic petrochemicals industry, but warns that unless production from gas fields rises significantly over the next 10 years, the government will fail in its target of trebling ethylene capacity by 2030. This report also examines the way in which Russian petrochemicals producers are diversifying and building capacity to compete in a global market, while at the same time supplying a growing industrial base, particularly in the domestic automotive and construction sectors. BMI analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in sector, as they seek to raise their share of the Russian market.

The government forecasts ethylene capacity of 11.55mn tpa by 2030, based on both current projects and the potential stemming from the exploitation of gas reserves. The Ministry of Energy has identified six main clusters for the development of the chemicals industry: Privolzhsky (Volga region), the Caspian, North-West, West Siberia, East Siberia and the Far East. West Siberia is expected to see ethane extraction volumes rise to 3.7mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2015 and to 8.5mn tpa by 2030, providing feedstock for at least six or seven world-scale crackers. By 2020, East Siberia and Yakutia could produce up to 77.8bn cubic metres (bcm) per annum, rising to over 91bcm by 2030. This could sustain a further four or five worldscale crackers.

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In 2016, we envisage ethylene capacities totalling 6.7mn tpa; this may be greater if plans for the Salavat Neftekhim Petrochemicals Complex come to fruition, with the possibility of cracker capacity of 1mn tpa. However, some segments will see little or no movement, notably styrenics and some intermediates such as ethylene oxide (EO), ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylbenzene. Based on current plans, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) capacities are set to rise by 117% and 157% respectively between 2011 and 2016, while ethylene and propylene capacities should grow by 85% and 83% respectively. There is plenty of potential naphtha and ethane feedstock availability thanks to refinery expansion and opportunities in the gas sector.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Over the next five years, polymer demand should rise by 5-8% per annum. The outlook for the industry is therefore firm and should buck the trend seen elsewhere in Europe.
- Energy feedstock price liberalisation, particularly in the gas sector, could undermine price competitiveness of Russian petrochemicals production.
- With a petrochemicals risk/reward rating of 62.1 points, Russia's commanding position in our petrochemicals ratings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been improving, as its risks decline and capacity increases. Russia is 3.6 points ahead of Poland in BMI's CEE Petrochemicals Ratings.

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