Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2012 -- The Russia petrochemicals report examines the enormous long-term potential of the country's domestic petrochemicals industry, but warns that unless production from gas fields rises significantly over the next 10 years, the government will fail in its target of trebling ethylene capacity by 2030. This report also examines the way in which Russian petrochemicals producers are diversifying and building capacity to compete in a global market, while at the same time supplying a growing industrial base, particularly in the domestic automotive and construction sectors. BMI analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in sector, as they seek to raise their share of the Russian market.
The government forecasts ethylene capacity of 11.55mn tpa by 2030, based on both current projects and the potential stemming from the exploitation of gas reserves. The Ministry of Energy has identified six main clusters for the development of the chemicals industry: Privolzhsky (Volga region), the Caspian, North-West, West Siberia, East Siberia and the Far East. West Siberia is expected to see ethane extraction volumes rise to 3.7mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2015 and to 8.5mn tpa by 2030, providing feedstock for at least six or seven world-scale crackers. By 2020, East Siberia and Yakutia could produce up to 77.8bn cubic metres (bcm) per annum, rising to over 91bcm by 2030. This could sustain a further four or five worldscale crackers.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
In 2016, we envisage ethylene capacities totalling 6.7mn tpa; this may be greater if plans for the Salavat Neftekhim Petrochemicals Complex come to fruition, with the possibility of cracker capacity of 1mn tpa. However, some segments will see little or no movement, notably styrenics and some intermediates such as ethylene oxide (EO), ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylbenzene. Based on current plans, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) capacities are set to rise by 117% and 157% respectively between 2011 and 2016, while ethylene and propylene capacities should grow by 85% and 83% respectively. There is plenty of potential naphtha and ethane feedstock availability thanks to refinery expansion and opportunities in the gas sector.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Over the next five years, polymer demand should rise by 5-8% per annum. The outlook for the industry is therefore firm and should buck the trend seen elsewhere in Europe.
- Energy feedstock price liberalisation, particularly in the gas sector, could undermine price competitiveness of Russian petrochemicals production.
- With a petrochemicals risk/reward rating of 62.1 points, Russia's commanding position in our petrochemicals ratings for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been improving, as its risks decline and capacity increases. Russia is 3.6 points ahead of Poland in BMI's CEE Petrochemicals Ratings.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff will help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Energy research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Israel Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- China Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Czech Republic Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Hungary Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Poland Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Qatar Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Iran Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
- Germany Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012