Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/21/2013 -- BMI's Taiwan Defence and Security Report for Q2 2013 examines the country's strategic position in the Asia Pacific region. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in Taiwan's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues.

The report's general conclusion is that relations between Taiwan and the mainland will remain stable, at least until the end of President Ma Ying-jeou’s term in office in 2016. Ma has established cordial relations with Beijing, which is in turn preoccupied with a range of other domestic and foreign issues.

Even the dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands – which Taiwan also claims – has seen very little Taiwanese involvement, with the island relegated to the side-lines of the debate.

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Despite the calm state of cross-strait relations, Taiwan’s military continues to be almost exclusively focused on defending the island against Chinese aggression. In early 2013, it has brought into service some new systems that should prove very helpful in that regard. In particular, a new early warning radar system – one of the most powerful in the world – became operational in February; it will enable the Taiwanese to monitor activities deep into Chinese territory. A new land-attack cruise missile (LACM) is also now operational, while a longer-range LACM is reportedly under development. These weapons signify a shift in posture for the Taiwanese military, which would now be able to strike targets on the mainland if the island were ever to be attacked.

However, Taiwan’s procurement options remain limited. Its defence budget stands at U$10.6bn, and costly upgrade programmes for its fleets of F-16 and IDF fighters are currently monopolising equipment funds.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- In Q1 President Ma once again raised the issue of Taiwan acquiring new submarines from the US. However, there remains little prospect of the US acquiescing – or of Taiwan succeeding to build submarines of its own. - Taiwan’s position on the Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute has become the subject of national debate. Some feel that Taiwan should be more assertive in pressing its claim alongside China and Japan, while others – including the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – argue that Taiwan should take a tougher line in condemning China’s ‘provocative’ actions in the disputed area.

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