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Market Report, "Thailand Power Report Q2 2013", Published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Thailand Power Report Q2 2013"


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/22/2013 -- BMI View: Our forecast for electricity generation in Thailand for 2013 remains unchanged. However, we have revised down our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation in due to several challenges in expanding the country's thermal and hydropower generation as well as the country's plan to increase electricity imports from Laos. Yet, despite our cautious outlook for hydropower and thermal generation in Thailand, we continue to be relatively bullish towards renewables due to a larger renewable energy project pipeline and an increase in government support for renewables.

Our forecast for electricity generation in Thailand for 2013 remains unchanged from our previous forecast at 3.9%. This is significantly higher than the historical five-year average of 2.5%, as Thailand's economic performance (a main factor on electricity consumption) was relatively poor during this period. Restoration efforts for the October 2011 floods in Thailand are still underway, and could lead to higher levels of electricity consumption and generation.

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We have revised down our long-term forecast for electricity generation growth in Thailand from an average of 4.9% to 4.5% per annum between 2013 and 2022. This downward revision can be attributed to several challenges that the Thai power sector is facing, as well as the country's plan to increase electricity imports from Laos.

Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:

- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious 'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of 2GW of solar capacity, 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs) with a capacity of 5400MW. Announced after Thailand's National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country's 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
- In April 2011, the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) stated that they would invest THB400bn into developing a smart grid over the following 15 years, and followed the announcement with a roadmap for the project's implementation.

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