Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/03/2014 -- We hold a below-consensus view on the Turkish consumer and Turkish economic growth. We believe that growth will slow sharply over the next several quarters, spearheaded by the decline in consumption expenditure. We forecast private consumption growth to stagnate in 2014, from 4.6% growth in 2013, and to be the primary driver of weak headline GDP growth. The main factor behind this decline will be the dramatic slowdown currently underway in all segments of consumer credit growth, a trend that shows few signs of abating anytime soon.

That said, we do not believe food consumption growth in Turkey will be drastically affected. We hold this view due to the fact that the slowdown in private final consumption in Turkey will be fuelled by the decline in credit purchases, which typically does not affect non-cyclical household expenditure.

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We believe that the country offers one of the best global opportunities in terms of consumer expenditure growth. Turkey's large and youthful population will experience greater income growth as our forecast period to 2018 develops, which will help drive food and drink consumption. Multinational FMCG and retail firms are investing in the country at an increasing pace. We see the ongoing formalisation of the food, drink and mass grocery retail industries forming the backbone of our bullish long-term view on Turkey.

Headline Industry Data:

- 2014 food consumption sales (local currency) growth: +9.9%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +9.9%.

- 2014 food consumption per capita sales (local currency) growth: +8.6%; CAGR to 2018: +8.8%.

- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +9.3%; CAGR to 2018: +9.4%.

- 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +9.9%; CAGR to 2018: +10.7%.

- 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency): +11.7%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +12.3%.

- Key Company Trends

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The Turkey Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Turkey Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Turkey.

Key Benefits:

- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish food and drink market.

- Target business opportunities and risks in Turkey through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage:

BMI Industry View:

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings:

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis:

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts:

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

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