Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/07/2013 -- Following a year which BMI believes saw mixed growth dynamics for different freight modes, 2013 will signal positive growth in line with a better macroeconomic outlook, and new historic high volumes in some freight modes.

Total trade is projected to pick up, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5.70% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 2.35% in 2012.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2013. The mode has made a prompt recovery from the downturn and enjoys the benefits of not having to make any reductions in road haulage volumes, such those pledged by the neighbouring EU.

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A bill on the railway reform, which would allow private operators an access to railway infrastructure, may become a law by the end of 2013.

The throughput at the Port of Ambarli, one of Turkey's largest ports, is set to resume growth in terms of tonnage. Over the medium term we project further increase in freight volumes at the port.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 6.6%
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.8%
- 2013 Port of Ambarli throughput is forecast to grow by 6.3%
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 2.8%
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.7%.

Key Industry Trends

APMT Finalises AGT Agreement: APM Terminals (APMT) and Turkey's Petkim have entered into a final agreement for the construction and operation of the Aegean Gateway Terminal (AGT), close to Izmir, Turkey. APMT will have the right to operate at the port for 28 years, with the option to extend this. Breaking into Turkey is part of the company's continuing emerging Europe expansion strategy. BMI believes this to be a wise move by the port operator as emerging markets are the area of interest to the container shipping community and Turkey, with its young population, offers medium- to long-term consumer demand growth.

Turkey To Open Railways To Private Sector: The Turkish government submitted a bill to the country's parliament on the railway reform in March. The document proposes the restructuring of the Turkish State Railways (TCDD) into the entity in control of the country's railroad network and infrastructure, retaining state financing, and continuing operating some of the train lines, while private operators will be allowed to build railway infrastructure, operate it and manage trains on the national railway network. The same bill also suggests creation of a new company to operate freight and passenger services.

Turkey-Russia Rail Ferry Line Launched: The rail ferry line linking the ports Samsun, Turkey and Kavkaz, Russia was officially launched in February. The line is planned to carry 200,000 tonnes of freight per year initially.

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