New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/06/2014 -- This quarter our fundamental assumptions for Turkey remain virtually unchanged. . Ove rall, we maintain our view that Turkey set to emerge as a key power market over the coming decade, accounting for nearly one- fifth of t he CEE's total capacity by 2023 , T he power sector continues to attract interest from a host of international companies as the country moves to position itself as an energy hub in the south-east Mediterranean. T here is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive for greater energy security and to lessen its reliance on its import-heavy thermal electricity generation mix, which has already played a fundamental role in deepening Turkey's current account deficit.
Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position. With a slowdown of GDP on the cards expected in the coming quarters, we note a large and widening current account deficit (in part due to the import of fuel for power generation), high inflation and elevated political risk have taken a toll on investor confidence and encouraged caution towards holding lira-denominated debt at a time when demand for emerging market assets is waning, as yields in developed states look set to improve. As such, we do not believe the worst of the financial market adjustment is yet over and expect the CBRT will be forced to tighten further during 2014. This will curb fixed investment, credit growth and private consumption, which are the main drivers of economic growth in Turkey. In turn, any subsequent fall in demand will have a deleterious impact on electricity consumption and generation - underscoring our conservative power sector forecasts for generation growth of 5.29% in 2014 - considerably lower than in the preceding years.
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That said, we are retaining a cautious, but positive long-term view on the sector, based on the fact...
The Turkey Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Turkey Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Turkey's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View:
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis:
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts:
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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