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Market Report, "United States Business Forecast Report Q1 2015", Published

Fast Market Research recommends "United States Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/21/2014 -- Core Views

- The US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports.

- The federal government's fiscal accounts will show another year of substantial improvement, due to stronger revenue collection and continued fiscal restraint due to the budget sequester. We forecast the deficit will narrow to 3.0% of GDP from 4.0% of GDP in 2013.

- Stronger domestic oil and gas production will reduce the need for imported energy again in 2014, but this dynamic will be offset by accelerating domestic economic activity, which will boost imports. We forecast a 2.2% of GDP current account deficit this year, the narrowest since 1997.

- We continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its current quantitative easing programme by end-2014. Substantial slack remains in the labour market, and in light of a weak inflation outlook we do not anticipate the first hike to the Fed funds rate until H215.

- We believe that Republicans are heavily favoured to retain control of the US House of Representatives and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate from Democrats in November midterm elections. This will not represent a significant change to the status quo regarding the difficulty of passing legislation, since any major bill passed by the Republican Congress can still be vetoed by Democratic President Obama.

View Full Report Details and Table of Contents

Major Forecast Revisions

- No major revisions this quarter

Risks To Outlook

- International Crises Intensify: Over the past quarter, the Islamic State, the terrorist organisation operating in Syria and Iraq, has risen to much greater prominence, spurring a multilateral effort to roll back its territorial advances. If this and other crises around the world, such as the outbreak of the...

The United States Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in the United States and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of the United States' economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of the United States' economic and industry growth through end-2017.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise {the United States' country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in the United States, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The United States Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the American economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for the United States through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The United States Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:


- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

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