New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/10/2014 -- Coal's role as the pre - eminent fuel for electricity generation in the US has lessened gradually, and we anticipate that its share will dwindle further over our forecast period. Low natural gas prices will continue to drive this shift, as will a growing emphasis on renewables and more stringent EPA emissions regulations.
The dynamics governing the US power market continue to be driven by the country's shale gas boom, with low gas prices set to determine the composition of the energy mix. While gas remains cheap, the longer-term outlook for utilities that operate coal-fired and nuclear capacity is muted at best.
Although there was a rebound in coal-fired generation as Henry Hub gas prices climbed higher due to extremely cold weather in early 2014, our view that this would be short-lived has played out. After gas prices surged to more than USD8/mn British Thermal Units (BTU) - prices have since fallen back to below USD4/mn BTU. This has been due to growth in gas production - predominantly from more profitable liquids-rich shale plays like Marcellus and Eagle Ford (as opposed to less profitable dry gas plays) - during a mild summer, which has boosted the pace of gas injections into storage. This dynamic has curbed gas prices and is likely to lead to an uptick in gas-fired generation in the second half of 2014.
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Although we have highlighted that the shape of the US energy mix has been contingent on coal-gas pricing dynamics over 2013 and 2014, we expect gas-fired generation to rebound on an annual basis in 2015 (growing 5.9%) thanks to new capacity additions and the fact that coal-fired power plants will be forced to close to comply with Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATs) in 2015 and 2016 as well as more stringent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations. This view is underscored by EIA data that indicate a total of 4,350MW of new utility-scale generating capacity came online in the first six months of 2014. Of these capacity...
The United States Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The United States Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks United States's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United States
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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