Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/01/2012 -- BMI expects the Venezuelan consumer electronics market to grow by around 7% in 2012, but the precarious economic environment will inhibit IT investment. PC market growth has held up relatively well but has lagged other countries. Businesses remain cautious while consumers face inflationary pressures and the resulting erosion of real wages. The threat of further currency devaluation is real, although this would most likely not be until after elections scheduled for 2012. However, there remain areas of opportunity, with continued IT investment by small and medium-sized enterprises due in part to a government tax subsidy. The energy, retail and financial services sectors should remain among key IT spending verticals.
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Headline Expenditure Projections Computer hardware sales: US$1.2bn in 2011 to US$1.3bn in 2012, +6.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged. Given a difficult trading context, the main long-term sales driver is greater affordability, partly as a result of cheap computer programmes.
AV sales: US$1.0bn in 2011 to US$1.1bn in 2012, +6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but Venezuela's digital migration should drive demand for flat-screen TV sets.
Handset sales: US$1.3bn in 2011 to US$1.4bn in 2012, +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification, with local production of handsets more than doubling in 2011.
Business Environment Rating:
Venezuela's score was 37.3 out of 100.0; low Country Risk and Market Risk scores of 28.2 and 35.0 exacerbating the effect of relatively low Potential Returns.
Venezuela took last place in our latest Americas Consumer Electronics Business Environment Ratings table, but if there was a change in the country's policy mix after the 2012 elections - not our core scenario - the country's ranking would have the potential to rise over time.
Key Trends & Developments
- Venezuelan computer shipments should record positive growth in 2012, due partly to the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education and more local production of inexpensive computers. However, this growth is forecast to remain in single digits.
- 2012 is a significant year, as it marks the deadline for the government's plans to complete implementation of digital TV. Sales of flat-screen sets will be an area of opportunity as consumers upgrade their old models to digital. The government launched the digital TV programme in five cities during the first quarter of 2011. In March 2012, Venezuela announced that it would purchase 300,000 digital TV boxes and 12 DTT transmitters from Argentina.
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