Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/21/2013 -- High inflation, currency devaluation, import and foreign currency controls, as well as other structurally distorting policies in Venezuela will continue to trouble the country's pharmaceutical market in Q413. We expect the market to grow below nominal GDP levels between 2012 and 2017, and experience a contraction in real growth terms. Low-cost generic drugs made in Cuba will continue to be an important resource for Venezuela to meet its local medicine demand.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: VEB43.5bn (US$10.1bn) in 2012 to VEB53.3bn (US$8.8bn) in 2013; +22.6% in local currency terms and -13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast downwards from Q313.
- Healthcare: VEB86.7bn (US$20.2bn) in 2012 to VEB107.1bn (US$17.6bn) in 2013; +23.5% in local currency terms and -12.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast up due to macro economic data changes.

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Risk/Reward Rating:

Venezuela comes ninth in BMI's RRR matrix for Q413 in America, which ranks pharmaceutical markets according to their attractiveness to multinational drugmakers. We have re-weighted the RRR components to improve the tool, and adjusted scores for all markets in the Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare reports. Venezuela's pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at double-digit rates through to 2022 in local currency terms, largely due to inflation..

Key Trends And Developments

- In July 2013, the Venezuelan government repaid a part of its outstanding debt (US$85mn) to the country's pharmaceutical industry, said Angel Marquez, the executive vice president of Venezuela's Chamber of the Pharmaceutical Industry. Debt worth US$265mn still remains unpaid, Marquez said. The country is not facing a paucity of medicines but the quality of some products was below standard, according to Marquez..
- In July 2013, Takeda, with a rapid growth rate of 59% in 2012, became the fastest growing pharmaceutical company in Venezuela, The company's high growth rate is attributed particularly to its operations in gastrointestinal field..
- In Q213, two shipments from Cuba carrying a total of about 408 tonnes of medicines reached Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. The first shipment carrying 324 tonnes of medicines arrived in the country on April 29 2013, while the second shipment with 84 tonnes of medicine reached the country on May 12 2013, data from magazine Informes revealed. According to figures from the National Statistics Institute, Venezuela's imports of Cuban drugs increased 10.6% year-on-year to US$324mn in 2012.

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