New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Venezuela Retail Report Q2 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/03/2013 -- The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Venezuelan retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the February 2013 devaluation of Venezuela's currency on the consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being used by the leading players in the Venezuelan retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Venezuelan per capita consumer spending is forecast to fall by 3.3% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 15%. The country comes fifth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American retail risk/reward ratings, although it underperforms significantly for risk.
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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be one of the strongest performers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$3.49bn in 2013 to US$4.37bn by 2017, a rise of 25.4%.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in demand for economically priced products as food inflation continues unabated. This gives retailers with an own-label, low-priced line of products a significant opportunity.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- For now, we maintain our real GDP forecast of 2.6% in 2013, a significant slowdown from our 5.3% estimate in 2012. We believe the effects of the economic adjustment process will extend into 2014, when we forecast real GDP to expand by 2.8%.
- We believe that the inflationary effects of the 2013 currency devaluation will seriously weaken consumer spending, and therefore forecast private consumption to slow from 6.0% in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013. Moreover, we believe private consumption will remain weak for an extended period, and we therefore forecast private consumption to expand by 2.2% in 2014. A rapid deterioration in consumer confidence as a result of political unrest following the death, in March 2013, of president Hugo Chávez could see private consumption slow beyond our expectations, and even contract in 2013.
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