Fast Market Research recommends "Mexico Agribusiness Report Q4 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/06/2014 -- Overall, the long-term outlook for the Mexican agriculture sector looks less optimistic than previous years. Consumer demand growth is largely slowing, particularly in key areas like sugar and corn , where per capita consumption is already high. Competitiveness is also an issue, pa rticularly in the grains and livestock sector. Although we forecast a rebound in production for key sectors like corn and meat, we have a largely subdued long-term production outlook for these sectors, as cheap US imports, lower prices, and distortions due to government intervention reduce production incentives. We see the strongest growth potential in the poultry and coffee sectors, as Mexico remains a key coffee exporter and poultry consumption looks to show the strongest growth. We expect improving growth in the country's sugar sector, as the government has recently implemented reforms, however, compared to large global exporters, Mexico's impact on the global market will remain relatively minimal.
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- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 11% to 24.5mn tonnes. We have revised down our production growth estimates for corn, as we believe the area dedicated to corn is unlikely to grow significantly in the coming years, and use of genetically modified seeds remains limited. The strong five-year growth figure is owing to base effects.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 8% to 4.9mn tonnes. We believe sugar consumption growth will slow over the long term due to high base effects and increasing health consciousness in the country in the wake of high obesity rates.
- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 35% to 5.0mn bags. Agricultural techniques have improved in recent years, and local and national government programmes are helping to improve infrastructure and education, which are likely to help boost production. However, growth is largely due to base effects.
- 2014 real GDP growth: 3.1% (up from 1.1% in 2013; predicted to average 3.6% to 2018).
The Mexico Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View:
An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Mexico.
Industry SWOT Analysis:
At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts:
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.
Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI's Commodity Price Analysis:
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.
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