Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/22/2014 -- We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics.
The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.
Major Forecast Changes
After real GDP growth came in at 1.1% in 2013, below our initial 1.6% estimate, we have revised our 2014 growth forecast. We now forecast real GDP to expand by 3.3% in 2014, compared to 3.5% previously.
We have revised our 2014 average exchange rate forecast from MXN12.55/US$ to MXN12.85/US$, following a weaker peso than initially expected in Q114, when it averaged MXN13.23/US$.
We revised our 2014 fiscal deficit forecast from 3.1% of GDP to 3.0%, after the fiscal shortfall came in below our 2.5% estimate last year, at 2.5% of GDP.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Key Risks To Outlook
A further deterioration in the construction sector poses significant downside risk to our 2014 real GDP growth forecast. We expect the sector to recover, after contracting for several consecutive quarters since late 2012. However, homebuilders remain in a critical state financially, which could lead to an additional deterioration of the sector.
A significant delay in secondary legislation for energy sector reform, or a bill that fails to meet investor expectations, would likely lead to a significant deterioration in sentiment, which could result in weaker investment than we expect, as well as currency weakness.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Browse all Country Reports research reports at Fast Market Research
You may also be interested in these related reports:
- Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Brazil Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Chile Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Hong Kong Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Hungary Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Philippines Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Botswana Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
- Pakistan Business Forecast Report Q3 2014