Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/19/2013 -- BMI View: Things Looking Up - Very Slowly

Looking across 2012 and 2013, economic prospects in the Netherlands are unexciting. Amid the eurozone crisis and a stuttering world economy, we estimate that the country's GDP will contract by 0.6% in 2012, and forecast that it will recover - also by 0.6% - in 2013. The improvement in 2013 will, we believe, be based on a new wave of global monetary and fiscal stimuli, which will help Europe in general and the Netherlands in particular. While statistically unremarkable, it is movement in the right direction which is to be welcomed, but at the same time it has to be highlighted that growth is marginal. BMI notes that economic growth in the country is not forecasted to push up beyond 1% until 2015.

In spite of the less than inspiring outlook for the country's economy, we also note that in 2013 we expect most freight transport modes to see cargo volume growth of some kind. In almost all cases, in fact, tonnage growth will exceed the general rate of GDP expansion. There are various reasons for this, with perhaps the most important being the country's role as a gateway into northern Europe. This means that freight demand reflects not just the fortunes of the Dutch economy, but also those of a number of betterperforming neighbours such as Germany.

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Headline Industry Data

- Port of Rotterdam bulk throughput forecast for 2013: growth of 3.9% to 460.412mn tonnes. Container traffic to contract by 5.4% to 12.396mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
- 2013 Port of Amsterdam bulk throughput forecast to grow by 2.2% to 74.431mn tonnes. Container traffic to grow by 4.5% to 49,195 TEUs.
- 2013 rail freight total tonnage volume growth to come in at 6.9% to reach 45.916mn tonnes.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast set at 2.8% in real terms, similar to 2012.
- Export growth remains sluggish, at 2.5%, according to both 2012 estimates and 2013 forecasts.

Key Industry Trends

Port Of Rotterdam Cuts Shipping Fees

To pull through tough times, it is often necessary to become more competitive - and reduce charges. That seems to be the lesson learned by Rotterdam, Europe's largest container port, which is seeking to halt its box throughput decline in 2013, offering carriers the enticement of lower fees. In BMI's opinion the strategy will, along with a stronger macroeconomic outlook in Europe, encourage throughput growth at the port. We also highlight that the move reinforces Rotterdam's determination to remain competitive, as although it is the largest box port in Europe it has lost market share, and with the launch of a deep water port in Germany - the JadeWeserPort, in 2012 - it faces further competition.

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