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New Market Report: China Real Estate Report Q1 2013

New Business research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/21/2013 -- The China real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country from the perspective that the market, which has experienced exponential growth over recent years, is starting to succumb to the impending conflagration of market weakness.

With a focus on the principal and second-tier cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and Shenzen, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of wider economic concerns on a market that is losing balance. As prices are wavering from historic stability and curbing measures continue, particularly in major cities in China, the overriding sentiment in the country's commercial and residential real estate market is that a slowdown is under way, and our latest data collection from H112, while not demonstrating a resounding contraction, has seen many year-on-year (y-o-y) rental figures post results in the red. Many developers are struggling with liquidity issues, and many more have estimated a decline in earnings to date in 2012. There are some bright spots on the horizon, however. The retail market is showing strength amid the uncertainty.

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Key Points:

- China's economic imbalances have grown consistently over the past decade, to a point where we now believe they have reached a peak. We stress that the process of rebalancing will be disruptive, and the post-rebalancing economic structure will be much less conducive to rapid headline GDP expansion. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2012 and 7.1% in 2013. This compares to consensus expectations of 7.7% and 8.1%.
- The Communist Party of China (CPC)'s five-yearly congress in November 2012 will merit especially close scrutiny, in light of the Bo Xilai scandal earlier in the year, and the sharp economic slowdown currently under way. Vice-President Xi Jinping is expected to be anointed China's next leader, but he may lack the authority to press ahead with major reforms in the near term. Overall, we expect only modest changes in policy over the coming year.

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