Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/25/2013 -- Leading indicators point towards stagnant growth in France, and there are no suggestions that a robust recovery in 2013 will be forthcoming. Indeed, a combination of low consumer confidence, rising unemployment, stagnant real wage growth and the increasing likelihood of a slowdown in the housing market are all liable to keep private consumption subdued over the medium term.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

? 2013 per capita food consumption = +0.8%; forecast to 2017 = +6.0% ? 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.4%; forecast to 2017 = +5.1% ? 2013 soft drink value sales = +3.0%; forecast to 2017 = +20.0% ? 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +2.5%; forecast to 2017 = +16.5%

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Key Industry Trends And Developments

Peltz Plots Changes at Danone: Trian Fund Management, the vehicle of activist investor Nelson Peltz, has taken a 1% stake in French food group Danone. Reports suggest that Peltz is not looking for a wholesale shake-up of the firm and will instead put pressure on the firm to improve its margins and return cash to investors through share buy-backs. Danone's share price is still below its 2007 highs, and the firm's performance has been dampened by the weakness of the European market, where margins have come under pressure. Despite reports to the contrary, we see the possibility of Peltz pushing for more fundamental reforms, with the firm's low-margin bottled water business still, in our view, looking incongruous with the wider business.

Brand Builders Better Off Without Champagne?: Recent figures from the Federation des Exportateurs de Vins et Spiritueux de France point to a healthy rise in wine and spirit exports from France in the first half of 2012, with total sales up by 14% by value. At the same time, an executive at Pernod Ricard suggested that champagne producers must focus on markets outside of Europe to survive. Currently, growth in French alcohol exports is being driven by the success of premium red wine and cognac, and the champagne sector has not yet fully cemented itself as a drink of choice among the world's emerging middle classes. This has already prompted Remy Cointreau to exit the sector and could potentially push other major brand builders to focus their resources on the other parts of their business.

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