Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/11/2014 -- BMI View: With wheat and dairy production consistently short of consumption, Algeria is a major importer of food products. However, the government's new emphasis on the improvement of food self-sufficiency is helping the grains and dairy sectors to rebound . Increases in government support will be positive for productivity and product quality in the medium term. However, the country will remain a key importer of wheat and dairy products in the coming years. Algeria is increasingly expanding trading links with countries such as Brazil and India, especially for dairy and beef products, and away from its traditional suppliers such as France.
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- Wheat consumption growth to 201 8 : 11.9% to 10.5mn tonnes. Wheat consumption will be mainly supported by population growth.
- Milk production growth to 201 7/18 : 14.4% to 3.9mn tonnes. Our projections are based on the government's support for the sector and its plan to develop it by improving breeding methods as well as restructuring and further privatising segments of the agriculture industry.
- Barley production growth to 201 7/18 : 36.9% to 2.1mn tonnes. Our forecast errs on the side of caution. Significant changes to the size of the harvested area from one year to the next are a fairly regular occurrence in Algeria, reflecting the limited availability of water and irrigation.
- BMI universe a gribusiness market value: USD2.33 bn in 201 4 (growth to average 2.3% annually between 2014 and 2018).
- 201 4 real GDP growth: 3.2% (up from 2.9% in 2013; predicted to average 3.4% over 2014-2018).
- Consumer price inflation: 4.5% in 2014 (up from 3.3% in 2013; predicted to average 4.7% over 2014-2018).
Key Revisions To Forecast s
- 2013/14 grains production revised down following official downgrades, as drought affected some of the main growing areas in the eastern part of the country. For wheat, we believe production...
The Algeria Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's Algeria Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
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