New Country Reports market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/03/2013 -- The country's political situation will remain precarious for the foreseeable future given the weak state of the current government and ongoing popular protests. As a result, we do not rule out a return to elections at some point in late 2013 or 2014.
We believe that the incipient recovery in early 2013 will be choked off by recent political events, which will dampen consumption and investment. Bulgaria now looks highly unlikely to record any significant improvement in growth readings this year or next, and we do not rule out another recession.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 and 2014, to 0.5% and 1.5% respectively, from 1.5% and 2.9% previously, on the back of recent political unrest. With ongoing commitment to fiscal consolidation likely to occur regardless of who wins the next election, we now see limited prospects for a near-term recovery in domestic demand.
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The prospect of weaker domestic demand has prompted us to revise our current account deficit forecast, which we now project to narrow to just 0.3% of GDP in 2013 before widening to 1.2% in 2014. We do not forecast a return to surplus any time soon, as we believe the currency board arrangement will serve to cap Bulgaria's export competitiveness.
On the back of a weaker growth outlook, we have revised our expectations for Bulgaria's fiscal deficit, which we now expect to arrive at 1.8% of GDP, from a previous forecast of 0.3%
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