Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/21/2013 -- We expect that 2013 will see a pronounced shift in the Chilean economy, and forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% this year, averaging 4.2% from 2014-2017 - below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector, with a negative knock-on effect on the country's freight volumes.

We expect much of the slowdown will occur in 2013 and 2014, with increasing global growth will help Chile's export picture recover from 2015 onward. We see domestic demand trending lower in 2013 and 2014, too, mostly on easing investment and relatively less robust growth in private consumption.

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Headline Industry Data

- Air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 5.05% in 2013 to reach 336mn tonnes.
- Total tonnes at the Port of Valparaiso forecast to rise 8.9%, to 11.29mn tonnes in 2013, with average growth of 7.0% over the next five years.
- Rail freight tonnage is forecast to contract by 2.0% in 2013, reaching 26.7mn tonnes, with average growth of 0.6% over the next five years.

Key Industry Trends

LATAM's Net Profit Plummets 96.6% In 2012: LATAM Airlines Group, the airline formed by the merger of Chile's LAN and Brazil's TAM, registered a sharp 96.6% fall in net profit to US$10.96mn in 2012 owing to costs associated with LAN's takeover of TAM in 2012 and higher taxes in Chile. Rail Volumes Set To Decline: Over the first three months of 2013, Chilean rail freight volumes handled came to 6.33mn, down 4.9% from the 6.64mn tonnes handled in the same period in 2012. Further, the annualised rate would result in 26.53mn tonnes handled.

CSAV Looks To Reduce Reliance On Chartered-In Tonnage: Chilean container shipping company Compania Sud American de Vapores (CSAV) is looking to bounce back with an expansion to its owned fleet following its dramatic fall from grace in recent years, when an overambitious growth plan left it financially exposed to significant losses and forced to drastically reduce its capacity. While BMI believes that the company would do well to reduce its reliance on chartered-in vessels, it must be careful to not repeat the mistakes of the past.

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