Fast Market Research recommends "Poland Infrastructure Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/23/2013 -- We have downgraded our forecast for the Polish construction industry in 2013 from an already cautious 2.2% growth anticipated earlier to a more severe 3.5% real contraction during the year. Amid a worrying combination of high competition, poorly structured tendering processes, contract disputes and the consequent ill-repute from the EU and its European counterparts, Poland has also seen its score in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings being reduced to 65.3 points this quarter, with further downside risk should the 2013 contraction in the industry be more severe than anticipated. Over the medium term, we expect the sector to return to positive growth territory, although it will remain well below the rate witnessed in the preceding five years.
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Estimates from the National Accounts Division and CSO indicate that the construction industry value declined by as much as 12.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the first quarter of 2013, marking the worst quarterly decline between Q112 and Q113. Considering that the industry suffered sharp y-o-y declines of 8.7% and 6.8% during Q312 and Q412 respectively, we see some room for the sector to benefit from the favourable base effects during the later part of 2013. As such, we have downgraded our outlook for the construction industry in 2013 a 3.5% real contraction during the year.
Key developments within the sector:
- Road building segment: The segment has dramatically shifted from a safe-haven for construction companies to a potential quagmire. Contract disputes have been growing in number over the past 12 months, with the road building agency GDDKiA having reached a stand-off with construction companies over payment of bills. The situation has spread into the political sphere, with Ambassadors from six EU countries whose construction companies are claiming lack of payment, having written a letter urging GDDKiA to explain why it had not paid its bills. GDDKiA has claimed previously that the lack of payment is related to the quality of work; however, given the reputation, level of expertise and number of companies implicated in this debacle, it is not surprising that more information has been demanded.
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