Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/05/2013 -- Although South Korea is likely to benefit from an uptick in the regional economic cycle, stemming particularly from China, we do not expect this momentum to last into H213. Consequently, we expect to see consensus expectations for 2013 (currently 3.4%) will eventually start to move towards our 3.0% target as the year unfolds. Furthermore, we believe that the country's deleveraging cycle is still in its nascent stages.

With both consumers and banks turning increasingly cautious towards the economy, Korean consumption spending is likely to remain constricted.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2013 per capita food consumption = +2.8%; forecast to 2017 = +25.1%.
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +3.0%; forecast to 2017 = +27.9%.
- 2013 soft drink value sales = +4.5%; forecast to 2017 = +32.0%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +6.5%; forecast to 2017 = +53.0%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

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Temporary Pick Up in Asia Food CPI To Ease in H213: After over a year of food price disinflation in Asia, elevated grain and livestock prices continue to stoke fears of a return of food consumer price inflation (CPI) pressures in 2013. Our view stated in July 2012 that food CPI would not rear its head despite the grains rally initiated in June 2012 is unfolding well, as our Emerging Asia Food Consumer Price Index - a simple average of the considered countries' Food CPI - has continued to follow its downtrend in recent months. The Index stood at 5.1% in December 2012, compared with 7.7% a year ago.

Whiskey Sales Continue Slump in South Korea: According to figures from the Korean Alcohol & Liquor Industry Association in early 2013, whiskey sales overall fell by 11.6% to 19.1mn litres during 2012 as the country's economic problems deepened. This marks the fourth year of decline for the whiskey sector in South Korea. The decline started in 2009 when sales decreased by 10% compared to the year before.

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