Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/30/2013 -- Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future. However, its role as a critical energy transit hub between Western and Emerging Europe, the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia provides it with a unique form of leverage and makes it indispensable as a key player in the global energy market. In these contexts, its rapprochement with Israel and the possibility of permanent truce with the PKK are significant tactical successes in its strategy towards all-encompassing energy security. There is also upside potential to the country's domestic energy production in the form of Black Sea reserves and unconventionals, including shale, although it is too early for either to be factored into our forecasts. Mounting investment into exploration activities underscores the government's growing commitment to increasing its own domestic resource base.

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The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

- A slight upward revision in Turkey's historical oil production data has produced higher annual growth rates for 2011 and 2012, though the daily volumes revision is minor, circa 1,700-2,000 barrels per day (b/ d). This has bolstered our oil production forecast for 2013 to 64,000b/d, from 62,000b/d previously.
- Though Turkey is a major energy consumer it is so far a minnow hydrocarbon producer. Turkish domestic energy production is in imminent decline, with our forecasts suggesting that total oil and natural gas production will begin declining in 2013 and 2015 respectively. At the same time, demand for both oil and gas will continue rising steadily and weighing further on the country's import bill.
- This will lead to a steady increase in imports, particularly of natural gas. We forecast that 2012 net natural gas imports of 46.8bn cubic metres (bcm) will increase to 55.2bcm by 2017, and then hit 62.9bcm by 2022.
- Energy security is a major policy objective for the Erdogan government and therefore domestic E&P is highly favoured. Momentum is up again in 2013, with additional capital pledged, bolstered not just by Shell's forays in the market, but also by the positive hydrocarbon showings in the Dadas shale formation. State-owned Turkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)'s subsidiary Turkish Petroleum International Company (TPIC) re-committed itself to two additional years of offshore oil exploration in the Mediterranean (Gulf of Antalya) in January 2013.
- The passing of the revised Petroleum Law (No.5486) would be a milestone for the upstream sector as it seeks to introduce amendments to the position of TPAO, but also get firmer commitments by the upstream operators on the development of fields.

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