New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Ukraine Power Report Q1 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/19/2013 -- BMI View: Ukraine's dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes, which have been exacerbated by the government's power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level, while sales prices for power are low, although the International Monetary FundIMF is forcing through tariff increases.
Key trends and developments in the Ukrainian electricity market:
- Ukraine's power generation in 2012 iwas estimated by BMI to have been 180.63 terawatt hours (TWh). During the period 2013-2021, Ukraine's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.47%, reaching 205.92TWh. Driving this growth will be an annual average gain of 2.61% in gas-fired generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role in the country's energy mix, growing by an annual average of 15.12% between 2013 and 2021.
- Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from the current rate of 13.85GW. The scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs, and the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine's capabilities.
- Talks between Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich and Russian President Vladimir Putin about gas prices scheduled for December 18 has been delayed. They say time more time is required to prepare documents they had planned to sign. Russian foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said Yanukovich would also not be part of the upcoming customs union meeting planned to be held between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The presidents were scheduled to discuss several issues about bilateral cooperation in energy and trade, including ways to find a mutually acceptable way for Ukraine to interact with the customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
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