Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/27/2014 -- BMI View: The UAE has a well-developed healthcare and pharmaceuticals market, with a growing private sector encouraging investment and increasing demand for innovative drugs, particularly those that treat non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and hypertension. The introduction of mandatory health insurance, which comes into force in January 2014, is another factor boosting growth, but on the downside, drug prices are falling as the government continues to look for ways to cut costs. The news that Dubai successfully bid to host the World Expo in 2020 has widespread implications - which reach into the healthcare sector - and as such, we expect to see strong growth over our 10-year forecast period.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

- Pharmaceuticals: AED6.68bn (US$1.82bn) in 2012 to AED7.02bn (US$1.91bn) in 2013; +8.0% in local currency and +8.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised down from Q413 because of macroeconomic conditions.
- Healthcare: AED55.46bn (US$15.10bn) in 2012 to AED61.94bn (US$16.88bn) in 2013; +11.7% in local currency terms and +11.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered from Q413 on account of macroeconomic conditions.

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Business Environment Rating: UAE climbed one place in our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR). In Q114 it ranked third out of a total of 30 markets in the Middle East and African region, with a score of 57.1.

Key Trends & Developments:

The UAE's Ministry of Health plans to cut the price of 192 drugs by up to 60% from 1 January 2014. Most of these drugs are used for the treatment of long-term conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes. This marks the fourth price cut in the UAE in the past two years. We have revised our forecast downwards in light of these cuts.

Waha Capita announced in late 2013 that it plans to invest in the UAE's private healthcare market, announcing 12 projects as mandatory health insurance comes into effect across the country. This illustrates the good prospects of the private sector.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) announced in October 2013 that it plans to open its MENA regional office in Dubai Biotechnology and Research Park. The move is positive and should encourage greater foreign direct investment in the country.

BMI Economic View: Following Dubai's successful bid for the Word Expo 2020, we have increased our economic forecast for the country as this will provide a considerable boost to the infrastructure sector. We now forecast that Dubai's real GDP growth will average 4.3% to 2017. For 2013, we forecast that real GDP growth for the UAE will stand at 4.1%.

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