Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/02/2013 -- Throughput at the port of Ambarli, Turkey's largest container port, is set to increase in terms of both tonnage and box volumes in 2013, in line with the macroeconomic outlook, with real GDP forecast to increase despite the country's export sector heavily exposed to Europe.

Over the medium term we project further growth at the port of Ambarli. BMI highlights that the privatisation of Turkey's port sector has been followed by a flood of investment, with a number of projects underway to boost capacity at the nation's ports, and the likes of DP World and APM Terminals (APMT) entering the country's container market.

Headline Industry Data

- - 2013 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to grow 6.3%; over the medium term we project a 33% increase.
- 2013 port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow 9.4%; over the medium term we project a 49% increase.
- 2013 total trade growth forecast at 5.7%.

Key Industry Trends

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APMT Finalises AGT Agreement: APMT and Turkey's Petkim have entered into a final agreement for the construction and operation of the Aegean Gateway Terminal (AGT), close to Izmir, Turkey. APMT will have the right to operate at the port for 28 years, with the option to extend this. Breaking into Turkey is part of the company's continuing emerging Europe expansion strategy. BMI believes this to be a wise move by the port operator as emerging markets are the area of interest to the container shipping community and Turkey, with its young population, offers medium to long term consumer demand growth.

Azeri Oil Shipments Via Ceyhan Decrease: The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has released the data on Azeri oil exports via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) export pipeline. A total of 29.3mn tonnes of oil were shipped from Turkey's Ceyhan Port in 2012, which is 8.7% below the previous year's level.

Large Container Port To Commence Operations: The US$450mn Asyaport is expected to start operations in Tekirdag in October with an initial throughput capacity of 1mn TEU.

Turkey-Russia Rail Ferry Line Launched: The rail ferry line linking the ports Samsun, Turkey and Kavkaz, Russia was officially launched in February. The line is planned to carry 200,000 tonnes of freight per year initially.

Risks to Outlook

The base for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's outlook for the Turkish economy. Our 2013 real GDP growth forecast for Turkey is 4.0%, compared with 2012's estimated increase of 2.6%.

The major risk to Turkey's macroeconomic trajectory stems from its external environment. A continued deterioration in global economic activity will weigh heavily on foreign investment and the export sector, creating downside risk to our throughput forecasts for country's ports.

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