Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/17/2013 -- Conventional gas deposits would support Uzbekistan's hydrocarbons industry, though we project a continued decline in oil production. Consumption growth in both oil and gas will be curtailed by the diversion of gas to external markets to meet its export obligations, a failure to meet its domestic refined products demand and restrictions on fuel imports.

The main trends and developments in Uzbekistan's oil & gas sector are:

- We have forecast a very gradual decline in oil reserves, with 485.3mn barrels (bbl) to remain by 2022, down from the EIA's forecast of 582.1mn bbl for 2013. However, exploration activity and a reasonable discovery rate lead us to believe that Uzbekistan could see a rise in its gas reserves, from a forecast 1.8trn cubic metres (tcm) in 2013 to 1.9tcm by 2022.
- Uzbekistan has an estimated 340bn bbl of oil shale deposits and Uzbekneftegaz has established a US $600mn joint venture (JV) project that will convert the oil shale into crude oil to be processed into petroleum products. It has started first drilling at the Sangruntau deposit in March 2013, and is aiming to produce 2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of liquids from oil shale (40,164 barrels per day, or b/d) between 2014 and 2015 and 8mn tpa (160,656b/d) by 2018 from the Sangrantau deposit alone. It has also started studying reserve potential at areas in the Kyzylkum desert and Baisun Mountains; however, we have not factored this in our forecast until the success of its first development is proven.
- Without early success in enhanced recovery, shale-based production and/or new field development, we believe crude oil supply - including lease condensate but excluding natural gas liquids (NGL) - will fall to 55,160b/d by 2017. However, additional NGL volume - thanks to higher gas output from Uzbekistan - should help stem a rapid fall, and see total liquids output fall to a lesser extent to 105,800b/d in 2017. By 2022, an increase in NGL production could see total liquids output stay stagnant at about 105,600b/d.
- We are forecasting a relatively slow growth in oil consumption from 106,500b/d in 2012 to 109,100b/d in 2017, rising gradually to 113,000b/d by 2022. Nonetheless, slower liquids output growth in face of this demand rise will see net exports of about 4,000b/d in 2013 reverse into imports of 3,300b/d in 2017 and 7,400b/d by 2022.If the Uzbek government persists with fuel import restrictions without upgrading the country's state-owned refineries or attracting private downstream investment, demand could be suppressed further.

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