Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/15/2014 -- Core Views

- We forecast that real GDP growth in Angola will average 5.4% annually between 2015 and 2019. The non-oil sector will be the main driver of growth over our 2015-2019 forecast period. High levels of government spending on infrastructure and oil exploration and development underpin strong growth in the construction, energy and transport sectors.
- Plateauing oil revenues, a narrow tax base and heavy public spending will see Angola's fiscal balance remain firmly in the red over the next few years. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall - in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP - over our 2014-2018 forecast period.
- The current account balance will steadily deteriorate over the next five years to stand at 1.0% of GDP by 2019, from an estimated 7.4% of GDP in 2014. We predict that the country will sustain a sizeable fiscal shortfall - in the range of 6.0-8.5% of GDP - over our 2014-2018 forecast period.
- Over the last six months, the country's traditionally fractured opposition parties have shown greater unity and been more openly critical of the ruling Movimento Popular de Libertacao de Angola (MPLA). Popular anti-government protests, a frequent occurrence since 2011, have assumed a more organised and political edge.

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Major Forecast Changes

- We have made some adjustments to our forecasts for economic growth in Angola. We now forecast growth of 4.4% in 2014 and 5.6% in 2015, compared to 5.2% and 5.5% previously.

Key Risks To Outlook

- Our forecasts, as always, remain subject to the myriad uncertainties associated with oil production and exploration in Angola, along with volatility in global oil prices.
- Given that our forecasts only include planned oil projects, the upside potential posed by the country's vast and as yet unexploited sub-salt reserves pose a major upside risk to our forecasts over the medium-to-long term.

The Angola Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Angola and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Angola's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of Angola's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Angola's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Angola, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Angola Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Angola economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Angola through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Angola Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.

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