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New Market Research Report: Australia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Australia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- Australia is on track to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter by the end of our forecast period in 2022, surpassing Qatar as a series of major projects come online. However, the spiralling costs of LNG projects will most likely slow the momentum in further expansion of Australia's LNG export capacity. Gas production growth could be further threatened by increasing rules on the extraction of coal-bed methane. The country will also have to contend with a growing reliance on oil imports as domestic crude oil production declines while refining outlook appears increasingly bleak in face of regional competition.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Australia's oil & gas sector are:

- Our forecast for gas production is 134.3bcm by 2017, up from 48.2bcm in 2012. This growth will be brought about by the development of gas fields that will come online alongside the completion of LNG projects. We expect about 75% of this gas to be exported as LNG, largely to Asian customers. By 2022, gas production is forecast to hit 150.5bcm, with LNG exports surpassing 100bcm.
- However, further expansion of liquefaction capacity - and consequently exports - could be held back. Spiralling developments costs, owing to a shortage of skilled labour and a strong Australian dollar, together with an expected loosening of the global LNG market as more supplies come online, could worsen the economics of LNG projects in Australia. Whether or not costs can be controlled could be determined to a large extent by the outcome of the elections in September, as the winner could swing labour policy (and consequently labour costs) in favour of either producers (thereby lowering project development expenditure) or labour (keeping costs high to the detriment of further interest in new LNG projects).
- According to the country's energy ministry, Australia is using oil three times faster than it is finding it. Oil production and consumption was 525,200 barrels per day (b/d) and 1.05mn b/d, respectively, in 2012. Consumption is expected to continue its uptrend to hit 1.09mn b/d in 2017 and 1.14mn b/d in 2022. Oil production, however, is projected to trend downwards to 517,900b/d in 2017 and 505,900/d in 2022 due to the lack of notable projects beyond 2013 besides associated condensate production from gas projects. - Nonetheless, further oil discoveries and possible development, particularly in the Cooper Basin, and production from liquids-rich shale pending further exploration could pose upside risks to our oil production forecasts.

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