Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/02/2014 -- We expect strong food consumption growth in Belarus (in roubles) to continue over our forecast period to 2018. However, this expansion will not be driven by increased economic activity, with real GDP growth (in US dollar terms) forecast to contract by 0.4% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. We consider Belarus a risky market due to its political isolation from much of Europe and high level of government intervention in economic matters. High levels of inflation are a further concern, particularly for consumer goods sectors.
Headline Industry Data
- Food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +18.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +14.3%
- Per capita food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +18.8%; CAGR to 2018: +14.8%
- Alcoholic drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +24.3%; CAGR to 2018: +15.6%
- Alcoholic drinks volume sales (litre) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +4.8%; CAGR to 2018: +3.2%
- Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +21.2%; CAGR to 2018: +16.7%
- Soft drinks volume sales (litres) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +3.5%; CAGR to 2018: +4.0%
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Key Company Trends
- In August 2013, Belarus imposed temporary restrictions on all dairy products produced by Fonterra in the wake of the firm's botulism scare. The move came after Fonterra announced that a protein concentrate produced for infant formula and animal feed might be infected with the Colstridium botulinum bacteria. Fonterra exports US$133mn of dairy goods to Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Key Risks To Outlook
A potential uptick in consumer price inflation could deter consumption as the likely extreme weakness of the Belarusian rouble pushes up the cost of imported goods.
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