Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/12/2013 -- The China Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on China's economic outlook of the disruptive process of rebalancing following the peak reached by the country's economic imbalances.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chinese retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of the risk of a global recession on the Chinese consumer as well as on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Chinese retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market.

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Chinese per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 43% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 46%. China comes first (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings. Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be one of the outperformers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 44% between 2013 and 2017, from US$218.14bn to US$314.47bn as we project double-digit growth in some key products such as smartphones and LED flat-panel TV sets. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the rural electronic household products subsidy programme.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

- Fears over China's shaky financial system, overvalued property market and huge industrial overcapacity have been replaced by hopes that policymakers can engineer a recovery back above the 8% level. BMI maintains its view that the prospects for H113 look relatively bright. However, there may be some negative surprises in store as the year progresses as the recovery comes up against the country's structural hurdles. As such, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 7.5% in 2013, versus the Bloomberg consensus of 8.1%. We believe that the weakness seen in the Chinese economy in 2012 is highly unlikely to mark the low point in China's economic cycle. Rather, the downturn was likely a taste of what is in store as the economy rebalances away from its investment-driven growth model. Indeed, we estimate that gross fixed capital formation's share of overall GDP was reduced by a mere 1.1 percentage points in 2012 (from 49.2% to 48.1%).

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