Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/25/2013 -- A modest recovery in private consumption will be insufficient to drive a significant economic recovery in Croatia in 2014, with fiscal consolidation and weak investment spending set to weigh on headline growth. Although the recovering tourism sector will continue supporting the economy, we have pencilled in below-consensus real GDP growth of -0.4% in 2013 and 0.6% in 2014. While Croatia's economic recovery will remain sluggish in 2014, we believe that the economy will move out of recession this year, breaking away from five consecutive years of negative growth. Recently released data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics show that real GDP contracted by only 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q213. This marks the continuing improvement in the economy, up from 2.3% y-o-y contraction in Q412 and 1.5% y-o-y contraction in Q113.

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Headline Industry Data (local currency)

- 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.4%; per capita forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +2.4%.
- 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +2.3%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +2.4%.
- 2014 soft drinks value sales = +4.5%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +3.4%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail = +2.9%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +3.4%.

Key Company Trends

Agrokor Plans London IPO To Fund Expansion: Croatia-based food producer and retailer Agrokor plans to launch an initial public offering (IPO) at the London Stock Exchange in the next two years. The funds raised through the IPO could be utilised to finance acquisitions in Turkey or Russia, said Ivica Todoric, the president of the company. The company plans to capitalise on the IPO to expand beyond its existing market of the western Balkan heartland. However, it is yet to make a decision on the exact timing and structure of the IPO, Todoric added.

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