Fast Market Research recommends "Estonia Shipping Report Q2 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/24/2013 -- BMI View: Upbeat Economic Outlook Helps Stabilise Port Of Tallinn
Since our last quarterly report we have become more optimistic about Estonia's near-term growth. The country is 'ahead of the curve' as far as the eurozone recovery is concerned, and set to benefit from relatively strong consumer and investment spending. A fiscally prudent government is doing its bit as well, reducing the deficit in a gradualist manner. As a result we now estimate 2012 GDP growth at 3.2% (from 2.4% previously) and we forecast 2013 growth at 3.3% (up from the previous forecast of 3.0%). Of course, a corruption scandal is undermining the popularity of the Reform Party, the senior member of the ruling coalition, and there is a risk of a shake-up within the administration that would increase political risk. We believe however that the government will not collapse and economic policy is not likely to face any abrupt changes. We still expect total foreign trade (imports + exports) to grow by a healthy 6.1% in 2013.
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Within the ports and shipping sector, competition from the new Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga has, as expected, taken significant bulk cargo business away from Estonia's Port of Tallinn. Throughput at the Estonian port fell by 19.2% in 2012, and we are projecting a small increase in 2013. The port authorities suggest a policy of diversification is beginning to pay off. On the other hand, container activity levels will remain strong with double-digit growth.
Headline Industry Data
- Port of Tallinn gross tonnage set to decline by 3.3% to 28.8mn tonnes in 2013, following a 19.2% fall in 2012.
- Box traffic at Tallinn to grow by 10.9% to 252,595 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2013, down from 15.2% growth in 2012.
- Estonian foreign trade to gain 6.1% in real terms in 2013, after 7.9% growth in 2012.
- Import growth will lead with 6.4% expansion, ahead of exports, which will be up by 5.8%.
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