Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Petrochemicals Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/11/2013 -- Although there remains cautious optimism that the German petrochemicals industry will undergo a recovery in 2013, the first quarter brought none of the anticipated growth. Q113 saw zero growth from a strong previous quarter. Production and producer prices stagnated and sales improved slightly by 1% q-o-q.
Small-scale capacity is being shut down as German petrochemicals producers seek to cut costs and improve competitiveness. LyondellBasell is due to close a 100,000tpa HDPE unit in Wesseling, Germany in Q313. It is among the smallest and least efficient of the LyondellBasell HDPE units in Europe. The company has sufficient HDPE capacity to meet customer needs from its larger scale facilities, so the loss is unlikely to affect overall sales.
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Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI maintains its forecast of 1.5% y-o-y growth in the industry in 2013, spurred partly by base effects and restocking as well as growth in exports. Domestic sales are set to rise by around 2.0%. This will mark a partial recovery from the 3.0% decline in output reported for 2012 when the German petrochemicals industry was hit by zero growth in domestic sales and the effects of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
- BMI maintains its GDP forecast of 0.8% in 2013 with risks weighted to the downside as far as domestic demand is concerned. In terms of exports, the US economy is set to continue its relatively robust recovery over the next 12 months and we expect real export growth to continue, but there are clearly sizeable risks to Germany's external picture
- In terms of feedstock, we see the market pricing in a lower average Brent price compared to 2012, but firmly above the US$100/bbl mark. Brent is set for a slight fall from an average of US$111.70/bbl in 2012 to US$107.00/bbl in 2013 according to our latest revised forecasts.
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