Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- The Hungary Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Hungary's economic outlook of investor fears regarding central bank independence and potentially inflationary monetary policy.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hungarian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of continued uncertainty in the eurozone on the Hungarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hungarian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Hungarian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 12% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 39%. The country comes seventh (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms slightly for Risk.

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Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be one of the strongest performers through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$25.30bn in 2013 and to grow by almost 27% to US $32.01bn by 2017. Discount stores are forecast to see the strongest growth, of 31.3% between 2013 and 2017. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the European Commission (EC)'s decision in March 2012 to give the green light to Auchan's acquisition of Magyar Hipermarket. The EC concluded that the merged company would continue to face strong competition from other market players, and that customers would still have sufficient alternative suppliers in all markets concerned.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- Hungary's macroeconomic landscape appears to be improving going into H213. However, we continue to stress that there remain significant risks in relation to the country's business environment and government policy. As a result of improving consumer sentiment and rising retail sales, we have revised up our end-2013 real GDP forecast marginally, from -0.3% to -0.1%. We hold to our view that a recovery in export and household consumption in 2014 will drive real GDP growth to 1.1%.

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