New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/17/2014 -- The Indonesian power sector will grow slower in 2014 than it has in the past five years, due to a slowing economy and higher electricity prices. We expect the country's electricity mix to change significantly over the long-term, and view the victory of Joko Widodo in the 2014 presidential elections as a risk to our forecasts.
We are forecasting electricity generation in Indonesia to grow by 6.3% in 2014. This is lower than the five-year historical average growth rate of 7.0%, which we attribute to slower economic growth and higher electricity prices. Our long-term growth forecasts for electricity generation in Indonesia are unchanged this quarter, with generation expected to grow an average of 6.5% per annum between 2014 and 2023. We highlight that the country's electricity mix is set to change significantly over our forecast period, with the share of oil-fired generation set to decrease significantly and the shares of coal and non-hydropower renewables power to grow considerably.
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Key Trends And Developments
- The Indonesian government has raised the price of electricity by 15% since the start of 2013. All four increments of 4.3% were implemented successfully in January, April, July, and October.
- On April 8, Indonesia's State-Owned Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan announced plans to build a 2GW coal-fired power plant in Jakarta. This appears to be part of the government's plan to expand its second Fast Track Programme (FTP 2). State utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) had first highlighted the government's plan to increase the capacity of FTP 2 from 10GW to 17GW in June 2013. The government has removed electricity subsidies for large-scale industrial users. Electricity tariffs for businesses will be increased by either 38.9% or 64.7% depending on the power consumption of the businesses.
The Indonesia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Indonesia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Indonesia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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